Trend of steel price in 2018
In 2017 the steel market logic is banned over the expected demand of steel stacking. From the perspective of consumption, this year's three or four line real estate sales in support of real estate investment, the growth rate of cars is decreasing, but the whole is still growing, which will support the formation of plates.
In this year's domestic commodities, the black department remains a single show, analysts say. In 2017, the black products continued to be strong in 2016, and the long wood was stronger than the board, and the finished products were stronger than the raw materials.
Analysts said that in 2017, the price difference between varieties showed obvious, she pointed out that steel prices rose steadily, at the end of 11, the thread index reached 4600, the highest since 2012 highs, at the same time, the basic balance of supply and demand double focus, market prices reasonable return; iron ore structural contradictions eased slightly in early December, although stocks more than 1.4 tons however, high quality ore proportion is still low, and the varieties of prices to expand.
She also pointed out that in 2017, the overall improvement of the steel industry performance is shown in the following aspects: the efficiency of the key steel enterprises is improving, and the overall sales profit rate is 3.88% in 1-8 months, the growth rate is significantly higher than that in 2016, and the long timber efficiency is better than the plate. But at the same time, she pointed out that the debt rate of enterprises still remained at about 70%. There was a big gap between the target of 60%, and the demand for leveraged steel enterprises was urgent.
In particular, she pointed out that the steel market stock in 2017 was a record low. On ground of steel and environmental protection production actual production decline, while demand than expected, resulting in steel stocks continued to decline. By the end of November, five varieties of social inventory 8 million 360 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 840 thousand tons or 9.1% over the same period last year, both a record low.
At the same time, analysts look forward to the steel industry in 2018. According to the model, according to the model, most of the major domestic macroeconomic indicators in 2018 continued to increase the temperature.
She pointed out that the environmental pressure normalization, 2018 winter heating production policy will continue; considering the supply side reform makes steel profits can be maintained for a long time, rates remain high, the use of non limited production capacity is expected to stage her in 2018, 10.22 tons of blast furnace ironmaking capacity effectively, electric furnace steelmaking capacity of 1.3 tons.
She further indicated that according to the model, sorting out 128 small industries in eight industries, and concluded that domestic crude steel consumption increased by 1.83% over the same period in 2017, and it is estimated that domestic crude steel consumption will drop 0.06% in 2018.
Analysts said, taking into account the land area of growth accelerated, low-income housing rental rights plan and other factors, is expected in 2018 the domestic real estate investment, new housing construction area, construction area and other indicators about rate of growth, but the growth rate narrowed; if we consider the private housing construction, real estate is expected in 2018 steel consumption declined slightly high probability.
The analyst also explained the logic of the operation of China's steel industry in 2018. Analysts show that macro policy will decide the transformation of supply and demand of steel, and at the same time, the supply of steel will shift from insufficient to relative prosperity, while demand will shift from growth to flat or decline. Moreover, the relative surplus of domestic supply will promote exports.
She pointed out that in 2018 the steel production profits will enter the normal regression stage, because the original fuel prices is not up, steel profits will fall back in the form of steel prices to the performance, when the screw screw screw ore, coke, scrap ratio, volume difference will appear rational regression.
She finally pointed out that the future of China's iron and steel industry will enter a stage of structural adjustment, which is mainly manifested in five aspects: first, the production process: electric furnace accounted for the rapid increase; second, regional structural change: the consumption subject to the central and western development; upgrade third, variety structure: stainless steel accounted for fourth, improve the industry concentration; promotion: TOP10 accounted for 60%; fifth, the industry average debt ratio fell below 60%.
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